> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://pegana.xyz/docs/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Case studies

> Five real depegs across the major asset classes Pegana tracks. What broke, why, and what a peg oracle would have shown.

These are retrospective analyses, not live captures — most predate Pegana. They're
here because the *shape* of each failure is the shape Pegana is designed to detect.

| Case                                                          | Asset | Class          | Date       | Worst spread | Detected live?  |
| ------------------------------------------------------------- | ----- | -------------- | ---------- | ------------ | --------------- |
| [USDC-SVB](/docs/case-studies/usdc-svb-march-2023)                 | USDC  | Fiat stable    | 2023-03-11 | −1300 bps    | No (pre-Pegana) |
| [UST collapse](/docs/case-studies/ust-collapse-may-2022)           | UST   | Algo synthetic | 2022-05-09 | −7000 bps    | No (pre-Pegana) |
| [mSOL flash crash](/docs/case-studies/msol-pyth-may-2022)          | mSOL  | LST            | 2022-06-19 | −1500 bps    | No (pre-Pegana) |
| [DAI / SVB contagion](/docs/case-studies/dai-contagion-march-2023) | DAI   | CDP            | 2023-03-11 | −1100 bps    | No (pre-Pegana) |
| [GHO mint-only float](/docs/case-studies/gho-launch-2023)          | GHO   | CDP            | 2023-08-15 | −550 bps     | No (pre-Pegana) |

## Themes that recur

**Two-numbers framing matters.** USDC and DAI both had intrinsic ≈ \$1 throughout the
SVB weekend — only the market refused the price. mSOL had market ≈ 0.85 SOL for four
minutes while Marinade's on-chain intrinsic never moved. A monitor that watches one
side prints either a false negative (intrinsic-only) or a false positive
(market-only). See [intrinsic vs market](/docs/concepts/intrinsic-vs-market).

**Thin venues lie.** mSOL's flash crash was a single thin pool dragging an oracle.
Liquidations cascaded against healthy collateral. The fix is routed quotes (Jupiter)

* a confidence score that drops when depth disappears. See
  [market value](/docs/methodology/market-value).

**Asymmetric mechanisms fail asymmetrically.** GHO floated below par for 8 months
because mint was open but burn-to-par was closed. The state machine catches both
short shocks and sustained drift via dwell timers. See [hysteresis](/docs/concepts/hysteresis-fsm).

**CDP stables inherit collateral tail risk.** DAI rode USDC down because USDC was
half its reserves. Hylo's hyUSD has SOL tail risk. The signal worth watching is the
collateral ratio, not the market price. See [Hylo CDP CR signal](/docs/concepts/hylo-cdp-cr-signal).

## What Pegana would have shown

For every case below, we walk the timeline through Pegana's lens — what each state
transition would have looked like, what subscribers would have received, and where
the alert would have been actionable vs after-the-fact.

The honest answer for most of these is: **Pegana would have called DRIFT 5–30 minutes
before the worst print**, with a follow-up DEPEG transition once the threshold
crossed. That's enough lead time to pause a liquidation engine, freeze a payout
queue, or skip a swap — but it's not magic. We can't predict; we report.