Backtests/USDe cascade

Backtest · 2025-10-10

USDe reached CRITICAL.

On October 10, 2025, more than $19 billion in leveraged positions unwound. This replay freezes 43,210 Pyth observations from that event and runs them through methodology 0.4.0. Eight USDe state changes are independently verifiable.

October 10, 2025methodology 0.4.010 assets · 43,210 observations
Open live USDe auditRead methodology
$0.95331862Pyth candle low
CRITICALUSDe maximum state
123Verifiable receipts

Ten assets, one methodology.

Charts show fifteen-minute samples plus every transition tick. Shaded bands mark each asset's drift, depeg, and critical thresholds; vertical rules mark committed state changes.

USDe

Critical

market-proxied

First alert: 10-10 21:23 UTC · 45h 23m into fixture

Transition receipts (8)
TransitionTime · gap · hashVerify
PeggedDrift2025-10-10 21:23:00 UTC · −0.43%9a5680d07addadbfaa8bbc134e6c33d42ff983cff71d9df4786eea66841af9dc
DriftDepeg2025-10-10 21:28:00 UTC · −2.51%0a1ef932b9f02c0477b0ecb9c3e6648efcf2c58aea2b6fe65d6258de3c48007e
DepegCritical2025-10-10 21:31:00 UTC · −3.12%ffc56e0bf6b839abf497f6ca4b35b496282f76470b12b4ca25a714d3f859ead5
CriticalDepeg2025-10-10 21:38:00 UTC · −1.23%e5018a3061145364ed8d1cafc85f784187f662464d019ce6defe8a3760e568a4
DepegDrift2025-10-10 21:50:00 UTC · −0.42%9fcabe0ad5d84d240004f8b9b24fff5e0525acc435cb8d21da61d2a34f9c673b
DriftPegged2025-10-10 22:34:00 UTC · −0.12%729c1155b020c2411c70a5ddf5ddface0e4b94227ebb7a73ccf6aad5c6d9da35
PeggedDrift2025-10-10 23:01:00 UTC · −0.30%6760ffd6ed2904b75f3318f072488f99e3bb949c759658e1bef8bee96a38774d
DriftPegged2025-10-10 23:40:00 UTC · −0.12%3a7e9afb2a2bad93ffeb9e4d594e37e3aef78551d92f38d1943e139f1ddeea4a

PYUSD

Depeg

market-proxied

First alert: 10-10 21:39 UTC · 45h 39m into fixture

Transition receipts (4)
TransitionTime · gap · hashVerify
PeggedDrift2025-10-10 21:39:00 UTC · −0.19%d7fada81bfeb13bd88b18917aff3ceb712c47471544de179de029c8e8b3a4191
DriftDepeg2025-10-10 21:51:00 UTC · −0.71%786ce5241721d100bdd0f1158c1243cf8d05ed7a571148383738e5fca9392f25
DepegDrift2025-10-10 22:52:00 UTC · −0.33%8e1c83e993ad8be5eaa839c8fc08c56584e05e243f8e96059b9c6a93e230e059
DriftPegged2025-10-10 23:55:00 UTC · −0.09%cc3749ba6f1d30ba908d15bfae0ae3e9ba5a2d501f14cc0420ecfecb9e97bb95

USDC

Pegged

perfect

First alert: No alert

Transition receipts (0)

No state transitions. The asset remained PEGGED.

USDT

Depeg

perfect

First alert: 10-10 21:34 UTC · 45h 34m into fixture

Transition receipts (4)
TransitionTime · gap · hashVerify
PeggedDrift2025-10-10 21:34:00 UTC · +0.26%d7cbee54e98b3d3cb390739f20e0d7e02fe53c524c27e739d4cd6a6ef229bccf
DriftDepeg2025-10-10 22:34:00 UTC · +0.53%d333408ec1fe6f284fc890fd863eaf6116c0e1caba031ec97ae7f97de1940a12
DepegDrift2025-10-10 23:01:00 UTC · +0.34%80584787241c6429e481750389a6993796a8609d8a5ea113b83db74289f1042b
DriftPegged2025-10-11 02:13:00 UTC · +0.10%b5623707df0c41a6b1546dea9c81c64ef14287fdd44c6fa5301a3f2beb338f15

USDS

Drift

market-proxied

First alert: 10-09 17:37 UTC · 17h 37m into fixture

Transition receipts (12)
TransitionTime · gap · hashVerify
PeggedDrift2025-10-09 17:37:00 UTC · −0.22%2ba246f1da7b4dccaf105dfb76de40719adb902d142082e2c11dbd259baab5a2
DriftPegged2025-10-09 17:50:00 UTC · −0.14%9e0140e7cf19ca6695f6ebc382ea5e4867128ddf3a7b39087d0a73bc6af09deb
PeggedDrift2025-10-09 18:15:00 UTC · −0.23%c49f11180f5a277854227aceac8dfc9104ae34765ecce77bacd400c379d31acd
DriftPegged2025-10-09 18:27:00 UTC · −0.13%ff6ea6617c4f3b385b6236b2117f2a01c4cc402885a865c963adbdb2da575596
PeggedDrift2025-10-09 21:43:00 UTC · −0.24%9d46ed88a52c12faec2b77c2385e15eccaf082050a9d0492c5bcb35d78d45310
DriftPegged2025-10-09 21:59:00 UTC · −0.12%a82a6f3d2d9a8e858d9267497351d3bf581aa7454bb94103d6c4645f8adbfcb8
PeggedDrift2025-10-10 21:36:00 UTC · +0.32%fbdedd66d1fe48fc9a52f4372b2efdec2a5c57941301b4a03f25d961238b827f
DriftPegged2025-10-10 22:11:00 UTC · +0.08%3a9bece0cc6be8960e7313cfdc8647872b820e72707fa66c992bcb9ca6067321
PeggedDrift2025-10-10 22:16:00 UTC · +0.22%0f88d526364bb77caba9747068a31eb2c2eb00deb981159eb99228e811c162f5
DriftPegged2025-10-10 22:24:00 UTC · +0.11%2c311179a345ae75ed37eeaaa1ad38fc520e4beb1f271f8b6c513a00157903e0
PeggedDrift2025-10-10 22:38:00 UTC · +0.22%dfbdc13867077951e33f433ba88cf15e090b6b79146e31fca819a383951ed646
DriftPegged2025-10-10 23:00:00 UTC · +0.12%440715662e7888afa61128057c84a53682b6fdd82bb179d52b1ffeb3b279bc17

sUSDe

Pegged

perfect

First alert: No alert

Transition receipts (0)

No state transitions. The asset remained PEGGED.

jitoSOL

Critical

doubly-proxied

First alert: 10-10 21:30 UTC · 45h 30m into fixture

Transition receipts (11)
TransitionTime · gap · hashVerify
PeggedDrift2025-10-10 21:30:00 UTC · −0.80%9ad1f1b138a2dd9ab5df4053b36c187cfac8b537de09312f907bea805561c8d0
DriftDepeg2025-10-10 21:32:00 UTC · −1.76%73a1cfc57f047ed5829d5095e63ac8f32a70a923230febcf91e9786e16a6ec18
DepegCritical2025-10-10 21:45:00 UTC · −3.60%bbad1440196782c96e684212ebacfac17ad60641cf6e285d1a523d7ec776fb6f
CriticalDepeg2025-10-10 21:51:00 UTC · −1.24%ce114a8c245fa220ae12ea4334bb4670bc431a196b5898a11b8cb9c6f343846b
DepegPegged2025-10-10 22:01:00 UTC · −0.26%8b642b80ef698f884a2e6a84d615b9cf9797aa003a4b73a33deadbe0a517618d
PeggedDrift2025-10-10 22:33:00 UTC · −0.55%bbe897162e2055c2e15f1132290e30e8addd0bded2521dd1ea20f16d03ca6300
DriftPegged2025-10-10 22:55:00 UTC · −0.20%97d7a92510bdf84242d4d27de98d3011fc83a081dfe287d0e10de3228e7b8ff1
PeggedDrift2025-10-10 23:28:00 UTC · −0.60%f5f63bfa2cbead084d912096cae7fbcce2e868305cdb80e5effe02891f8c1ef1
DriftPegged2025-10-10 23:34:00 UTC · −0.20%ca4e58c2cf36b4b3c054e2469fa8b19aad533e50594abaed977642c985e0b2b6
PeggedDrift2025-10-10 23:43:00 UTC · −0.49%635082d14836b42e9810180ca6765ae3f685152f56c9e083e9422e6bc0577427
DriftPegged2025-10-10 23:48:00 UTC · −0.17%3d616ee3b45acf1e1dea4344045e18d5db5287aa7ab7d61263f5860d1a28909b

mSOL

Critical

doubly-proxied

First alert: 10-10 21:26 UTC · 45h 26m into fixture

Transition receipts (28)
TransitionTime · gap · hashVerify
PeggedDrift2025-10-10 21:26:00 UTC · −0.48%19187c960cec3a11e5d0bf52ce92865ab8ee687b1a6f2e469c33e431deb7a0dd
DriftDepeg2025-10-10 21:30:00 UTC · −1.61%b288c239a9ff75b26d575e364e911e5a705b85b278169b28c100b58f53823fdc
DepegPegged2025-10-10 21:40:00 UTC · −0.05%851c7031237551167ec47d60cb0b904c20accbbc64d8bdef3172b3430c8374f4
PeggedDrift2025-10-10 21:42:00 UTC · −0.64%6053c5818e27e2abb8c91b96186aa121da9129212eaaf53613031f6f4b444846
DriftCritical2025-10-10 21:44:00 UTC · −2.61%e8d6168fb50b7cef63b519a568a854d96d2d1f5e5b4b64bba5c5fbe15a65850b
CriticalDepeg2025-10-10 21:56:00 UTC · −1.28%8c834c5d8af3cfc4cfeca1b08b57c3f83f1f04ee8e056ffe13f54ba5a3bc1921
DepegDrift2025-10-10 22:02:00 UTC · −0.43%3cb0940e82d99b57a92e44520f82b0edccbd5fb14abab1f1418381fe23f5c0c4
DriftPegged2025-10-10 22:31:00 UTC · −0.30%b08d179fdf3850151dfa914b226163bc5d460681a8d99bab0f926debe2b4c67f
PeggedDrift2025-10-10 22:35:00 UTC · −0.49%377330f544dcdb7b5813bcf38e13194d32dd1a15cb303d9913ae131f49f20c71
DriftPegged2025-10-10 22:55:00 UTC · −0.10%3fb29713aa9f41260bb221017722e1e0cb4b84ff71a9743d164ff922ed9653a7
PeggedDrift2025-10-10 23:17:00 UTC · −0.53%f51a85b1dfe5f30dd6b479a9b26da9db4aa5720bf564635bf978fccb12cf98ca
DriftDepeg2025-10-10 23:28:00 UTC · −1.16%68cf536a230fea1e0ec43197b23d0cb587d5cbeb4f023520a201b7a82479fe2e
DepegDrift2025-10-10 23:51:00 UTC · −0.57%c20396eae7ee562594ae47c2ece3b6a3571e6cc851b203b4358c67d0cf20564c
DriftPegged2025-10-10 23:58:00 UTC · −0.29%4093e46652656250d451bd0866ff2d0d7ea6bbcde5b85dfe38ecad4352d3754c
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 00:05:00 UTC · −0.60%ad2685afccf918e2d75a4bc63cb35fec1434690d255d8f9add93ebdd474e378b
DriftPegged2025-10-11 00:17:00 UTC · −0.13%08e14bd22fef885f345a1eb805ed97636bbc375ecd45ce0d1f3f49676f64d792
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 00:27:00 UTC · −0.47%91de3ee94d6c471645eddb7080f124fa2ee25167dbb399391fc9a2bfcb6c965f
DriftPegged2025-10-11 00:35:00 UTC · −0.29%de5a18202393188b6264ede2f1f41ed8bbbd4091568ce21f0ce2021393e4fce9
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 00:38:00 UTC · −0.58%48fa7cde0fcfacdb9a17521e7d9d77da8227c63adc7d44d0f85a6cda2bc95410
DriftDepeg2025-10-11 00:43:00 UTC · −1.12%3980e61bcaf6c78d23509878c33fcc2affb79b3487b8140708e558b309aa3a3f
DepegDrift2025-10-11 01:03:00 UTC · −0.68%077e407819a2da09f6700b412f74b8fd09c97299451e7d085f1e234bec8c33ad
DriftDepeg2025-10-11 02:02:00 UTC · −1.06%c47c9a5b1c32651d9b5ea5f710747e777ab41f0b863b482f52c416de3e72f5da
DepegDrift2025-10-11 03:05:00 UTC · −0.72%337c74807acc1d186823c79a80a788c3204f8493c02ce942089ef24dd7e3ee3a
DriftDepeg2025-10-11 03:57:00 UTC · −1.06%4ed003e65d721a7bc258e08fd7e04dd3ca1b998b633c5fc7106cc87e0fdfb80d
DepegDrift2025-10-11 05:13:00 UTC · −0.73%2ee2a347fa0840779929198ddf7b9b306a75594ae97564ff5a7f17d6a49d780b
DriftDepeg2025-10-11 20:20:00 UTC · −1.27%6df99b7511420fb2453e06a9a1b67c61e3e7582536f183c6918fcc37c1640686
DepegDrift2025-10-11 22:20:00 UTC · −0.70%5a59a9aa6030d83c317c3aee88668664e79d4be034ca7bec6feff530ee0dac35Receipt bundle missing.
DriftDepeg2025-10-11 22:32:00 UTC · −1.10%19c2c7421fd93c84623b922de2743ee3fae00a5cf3ade41c22b0a5db52e9f1adReceipt bundle missing.

bSOL

Depeg

doubly-proxied

First alert: 10-10 21:32 UTC · 45h 32m into fixture

Transition receipts (48)
TransitionTime · gap · hashVerify
PeggedDrift2025-10-10 21:32:00 UTC · −1.04%b855210c8c173ee9a23cfb5819e8edad2a2859d1b11d0e77841dec2f346124a5
DriftPegged2025-10-10 21:40:00 UTC · +0.43%d7c809e01d8557996bbba94e227cf4d6949b31447e5592d25d7da87724f04d8f
PeggedDepeg2025-10-10 21:43:00 UTC · −1.18%142d2be8ca0ee85330c1343b17e5866bc23375a10dcaebf2fd84b9224e37866e
DepegPegged2025-10-10 22:00:00 UTC · −0.08%1fa82028777e89ec13f63173a528f5767c4d2d5bf4a12544e5a2c96188f3e3cb
PeggedDrift2025-10-10 22:34:00 UTC · −0.70%db450ed25b2f3d801d97252a304f0dfe16d28434de32df697c09973a0e49a40e
DriftPegged2025-10-10 22:55:00 UTC · +0.22%3c0f3c1e813319163666e69e30da1f9fd0eb709703d9bd7d8f945540f9bfdc29
PeggedDrift2025-10-10 23:26:00 UTC · −0.51%0188c0f5864c3341aa571ca342a1c7747381ad7608d9880a12ae23747090b678
DriftPegged2025-10-10 23:48:00 UTC · +0.27%df1c69108bd2db3d92e9205b158526dae4ab9ec58a78bd0e3df66f92de95384c
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 00:10:00 UTC · −0.46%71700bbb462662d7b21a7dab60fa746079b326c2242b6d5e34fa925801fcb9e5
DriftPegged2025-10-11 00:14:00 UTC · −0.25%f1164343c37355505f793d5b7efe8234113dc8c37fbd71db089fb502b393b4cb
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 00:39:00 UTC · −0.51%b5e6bcea1558e51b29e30b5f0c0dba659e6277acdfbceeee1371bca855f14c63
DriftPegged2025-10-11 00:55:00 UTC · −0.22%ae6c677ed26097c979519c5dcb80c950abcc2c5b15b9f9d9fefea645c4175e7d
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 02:00:00 UTC · −0.54%312e40f6fdc5b9ece73cec78a5159fd9a23ed3693b7c41076239ae11ba13d1a2
DriftPegged2025-10-11 03:06:00 UTC · −0.13%7af33798f3d33ca1fe72189a606d8f990695fd030c89e18f5baa2f8a586e725d
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 03:45:00 UTC · −0.52%6f72e781e7a565c1089faba8e4737ef076c15124ec5fc3b8dbdb200a70a0eb81
DriftPegged2025-10-11 05:24:00 UTC · −0.30%8808d7028ac71efea65ff1277d4892b42b4ebfec9e06e247b8317815f485fe29
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 05:48:00 UTC · −0.76%e2b1c1bffe239f0c8fe30f8875365c6995290a3c25bb38681cfc2bd270c89abd
DriftPegged2025-10-11 06:51:00 UTC · −0.22%5a87bd1ed7e59e742ccb4a74ccaaf75f1ea8a31258971941a50e087ee48b3f65
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 07:07:00 UTC · −0.47%9db90055106a202d1e6210eb76909b5cdf20189ab63c71346e79b4d4b61bc8dc
DriftPegged2025-10-11 07:31:00 UTC · −0.32%8bf7fad4c700a6364c982e24e5b24992877ea88f1118091a34efc8947d2c6968
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 07:45:00 UTC · −0.47%5a81bfe30783b2b97ed334049e0d2efca6f0348de8da14f12986633d21024b6f
DriftPegged2025-10-11 09:53:00 UTC · −0.26%f38699e997aea900ecbd1cccc16c4888cdc68685045e96047d310ca0d3170e2f
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 09:59:00 UTC · −0.50%200d3045d9d28785bbac914a3b783fd9dc87fa195c14846add0e741648d3a609
DriftPegged2025-10-11 11:18:00 UTC · −0.27%a629b19a6af653695b9c9cf20dc25f7c2d7cf38e529c6297b3ff9f55089b8c9e
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 11:23:00 UTC · −0.54%345af08702039336562218746a1ed0af834afd503c60c9fe78161c37554099d7
DriftPegged2025-10-11 12:02:00 UTC · −0.17%3672c90bfc5b526f1d000f8239cc2d9eb4b63c4ffb50c717d89cf721f22a9bdc
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 12:22:00 UTC · −0.54%0eda752ece18bdcf69b3ace4009cfe9c9e71ab57c4f4940c7b0104dd5b4de6b9
DriftPegged2025-10-11 12:51:00 UTC · −0.23%6e74fbd4a515d3fdfe0d148acfc8ff39dffc01952b8637681d4f7f377e7116fb
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 12:55:00 UTC · −0.53%bf5838ca9ad4481e1bba1dc1328f04f358bf84959af050d61446f8079615f9df
DriftPegged2025-10-11 13:34:00 UTC · −0.28%0619017cb26b59e9b370a1055aa05f3def8309ba63666d121ecdbc439bb81f42
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 13:40:00 UTC · −0.53%279781fc94cec9186e90676f8d9a18dd7ee9084225177c2400c7e8bd983a420f
DriftPegged2025-10-11 14:26:00 UTC · −0.21%a3bdfa1b727b730a8434043b7a7ba3fe9d8b0c44385256d7d7100823f409a78b
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 14:35:00 UTC · −0.55%ef276f6062e43e4f889158bfa23d23d878d5995993763ec14f4c8cbae08a3860
DriftPegged2025-10-11 16:38:00 UTC · −0.21%6ed5bd007116e366abd74c44b0c0500c1081d05be8a304d667ce0e5a57f30e3e
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 16:48:00 UTC · −0.50%2f0e2ec55c6db0f76bc6ae905a61ebcf03381ae5259ea4d6112bfe6f0f1af4e0
DriftPegged2025-10-11 17:42:00 UTC · −0.32%3b8cb051103e285ea616459c1071b1b41f888ae3e9e14124012b2d34ccb0f36e
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 17:55:00 UTC · −0.48%03b32bbc1d751eed4205729fbdd1f1796a02c9c359236a07fda57492adc38306
DriftPegged2025-10-11 18:09:00 UTC · −0.26%9ad5791e25c3455efad6d1c080c074f6ec06ce86e1be816cd3b65396af785ebf
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 18:19:00 UTC · −0.47%97065127b932307ebd949a905f2a45ead43612414a10035409bdbd9c958f1391
DriftPegged2025-10-11 19:05:00 UTC · −0.32%41e4f0d510cfd1e1b2827d8912618c75dcb77cabf10d7bf0de8c1a116d6b3fd3
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 19:28:00 UTC · −0.51%48616e5a673bfef07dca1dd9b58c345e71f0c5cd794715ff3cc41adee5b082af
DriftDepeg2025-10-11 20:21:00 UTC · −1.23%7ea6121a2d452019b19bb37979da3312794417c7e67564759541b099ae57ac4e
DepegDrift2025-10-11 20:57:00 UTC · −0.72%e120cc450c44625ae290ee0c8349a4940ce6cdb5b4cf36dd55336d50a312a930
DriftDepeg2025-10-11 21:13:00 UTC · −1.41%a2c3e062c4e35633564d2a60a53fdfbf14d7203d4007141e80e9bf487aaf3e8a
DepegDrift2025-10-11 22:18:00 UTC · −0.75%5a9872aca11b05e42bf93258822406f692823d8511a36c7ff3848b73345db2b8
DriftDepeg2025-10-11 22:33:00 UTC · −1.19%af82d7791649a90060695ec49580d6b88ae3ccf7f4ad0b22ef0331944c8925ef
DepegDrift2025-10-11 23:08:00 UTC · −0.72%a6a1fb85942f6e95a9b9d748ee27f8443564593ce008218388ce3d388d51030e
DriftDepeg2025-10-11 23:24:00 UTC · −1.12%fd57aedbde0751f87229007a7ff28fb2daa789243f14340d6a7e9a9b555a54a8

INF

Drift

doubly-proxied

First alert: 10-10 21:45 UTC · 45h 45m into fixture

Transition receipts (10)
TransitionTime · gap · hashVerify
PeggedDrift2025-10-10 21:45:00 UTC · −1.49%e5288777ba9bdaccfe64d7497ffec5f9083cebe7c3fd2b599ecf9d95d43bf820
DriftPegged2025-10-10 21:49:00 UTC · −0.62%eb61340a14cafecd458c03214e97896338866f6f291f33ab44b4a70fc09a92cd
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 02:19:00 UTC · −1.45%5885bce7eb2d747ecd2019531523a03822395d975810efa7bc3302fd73fc402f
DriftPegged2025-10-11 02:53:00 UTC · −0.95%8f14e234d56b561b3ee42e34b4e3a6c6fc8db2d465b3017cbd6364a0f1a1d3da
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 20:21:00 UTC · −1.60%ef7e25a6c53e91b0fe7359295f4a4d357fd2bf9be689bc603698f05f01713d09
DriftPegged2025-10-11 20:56:00 UTC · −0.97%5bb9bf26ca828d46a36b16f2265924bbe332d4e4bc7918a3be66faa56560816e
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 21:13:00 UTC · −1.77%bad7cbadf2affb0cc097b6b18508c99e7d3d8065c6e3c506ad6ce9cd404cdc3f
DriftPegged2025-10-11 22:11:00 UTC · −0.94%cdce77bdf86c37b5b7f10287d05b97fbe8b7c768a051b40602801d2cd2fa77ca
PeggedDrift2025-10-11 22:34:00 UTC · −1.50%239a4eeca76ed67517f51313f6415b2fb84c126ed2bd9b4e34f6fd63a362a8e3
DriftPegged2025-10-11 22:54:00 UTC · −0.89%eca1365ab4ab2b4c6d7a3194449819194dd00cb5cc61aff89ec85336f00d8c8b

Historical replay, not a live alert.

Hypothetical backtest against real historical Pyth data. No live alert was emitted on this date. Methodology v0.4.0, unmodified. USDT's DEPEG result comes from a sustained premium in the Pyth series because stable_fiat bands are symmetric.